Consensus PnL $136K · win rate 51% (101–97, n=198) · was PM monthly #833 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$136.2K
Record
101W / 97L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 198 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1711
Source
PM monthly #833
Trades
66
Markets
284
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 7 on the consensus side (57%)- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $11K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $6.4K · now 72¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?No $3.5K · now 61¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?No $1.0K · now 80¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?No $465 · now 28¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?No $250 · now 60¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?No $64 · now 62¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
113 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 52¢- Esports
+54 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +52%
- Soccer
+37 pts
side won 80% of 71 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +28%
- Crypto
+40 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 26% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 97% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 100% of 38)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 100% of 26)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.