Sportivo Luqueno vs. CS 2 de Mayo: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$85.86
49.3¢ → 56.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 44.3¢ | $1.0K | $554.09 | +$95.88 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 41.2¢ | $284.73 | $329.07 | +$44.35 | 54% 235-203 (438) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41.2¢ | $196.75 | $205.56 | +$8.8 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 40.6¢ | $87.97 | $123.52 | +$35.54 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 58.9¢ | $440.45 | $248.85 | -$10.63 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $37.94 | $38.4 | +$0.46 | 33% 72-144 (216) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $10 | $5.65 | +$0.15 | 48% 61-65 (126) |
Invested
$1,014.85
Value
$554.09
PnL
+$95.88
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$284.73
Value
$329.07
PnL
+$44.35
Record
54%
235-203 (438)
Both legs:
Invested
$440.45
Value
$248.85
PnL
-$10.63
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$37.94
Value
$38.4
PnL
+$0.46
Record
33%
72-144 (216)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
61-65 (126)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.