Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 11¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.1K
-$396.9
17.5¢ → 11¢
-37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $796.67 | $599.6 | -$197.07 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 65.5¢ | $170.1 | $231.13 | +$59.73 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $283.42 | $128.76 | -$186.41 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $140 | $77 | -$59.5 | 55% 555-461 (1016) |
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $54.3 | $40.65 | -$13.65 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
Invested
$796.67
Value
$599.6
PnL
-$197.07
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
Invested
$170.1
Value
$231.13
PnL
+$59.73
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$283.42
Value
$128.76
PnL
-$186.41
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTRInvested
$140
Value
$77
PnL
-$59.5
Record
55%
555-461 (1016)
Invested
$54.3
Value
$40.65
PnL
-$13.65
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.