Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 64% (652–366, n=1018) · hand-picked wallet · holds 89 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.1K
Record
652W / 366L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 1018 settled
Batting Avg
73.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#969
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
28,362
Markets
1,703
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
89 in listed consensus markets · 58 of 89 on the consensus side (65%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $8.6K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.2K · now 90¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $864 · now 73¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $840 · now 85¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?No $492 · now 82¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $472 · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $368 · now 92¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
Specialties
1,254 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 59¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 70% of 390 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 82% of 181 · avg entry 77¢
ROI −2%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 69% of 106 · avg entry 62¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 30% of 10 at an average 47¢ entry (−17 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 8% of 356)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 38% of 102)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 69% of 160)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 97% of 636)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.