Consensus PnL $1.2M · win rate 58% (155–110, n=265) · PM monthly #583 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2M
Record
155W / 110L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 265 settled
Batting Avg
38.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1300
Source
PM monthly #583 + pinned
Trades
33,610
Markets
1,069
Volume
$19.8M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 10 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $56K · now 95¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $51K · now 84¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (13% of 32)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $12K · now 15¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $11K · now 10¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (85% of 26)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $6.1K · now 3¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 17)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $1.6K · now 16¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (82% of 33)
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $498 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes $77 · now 12¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
640 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 55¢- NBA
+30 pts
side won 85% of 562 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +32%
- Other Sports
+35 pts
side won 97% of 31 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +29%
- NFL
+38 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 52% of 46)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 79% of 145)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 91% of 340)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 93% of 109)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.