Korona Kielce vs. RKS Radomiak Radom: 1st Half O/U 0.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$2.2K
$0.12
80.2¢ → 83¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 80.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$66.66 | 73% 3105-1173 (4278) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $81.7 | $25.84 | -$55.86 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $35.09 | $20.56 | -$14.53 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 48.7¢ | $5.9 | $10.07 | +$4.16 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 19.8¢ | $2.31 | $1.99 | -$0.32 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
Invested
$2,039.21
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$66.66
Record
73%
3105-1173 (4278)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$81.7
Value
$25.84
PnL
-$55.86
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$35.09
Value
$20.56
PnL
-$14.53
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$4.16
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$1.99
PnL
-$0.32
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.