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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.6K
$-1.3K
91.5¢ → 86¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.4¢ | $1.7K | $860.12 | -$696.37 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 92¢ | $979.73 | $494.76 | -$406.59 | 46% 2861-3344 (6205) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $274 | $151.5 | -$122.5 | 58% 53852-38329 (92181) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 91¢ | $175.99 | $98.75 | -$77.24 | 45% 2751-3326 (6077) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $74.77 | $37.76 | -$30.28 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
Invested
$1,703.2
Value
$860.12
PnL
-$696.37
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$979.73
Value
$494.76
PnL
-$406.59
Record
46%
2861-3344 (6205)
VeryLucky888Invested
$274
Value
$151.5
PnL
-$122.5
Record
58%
53852-38329 (92181)
Invested
$175.99
Value
$98.75
PnL
-$77.24
Record
45%
2751-3326 (6077)
Invested
$74.77
Value
$37.76
PnL
-$30.28
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.