FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$4.1K
-$53.12
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 53.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$33.11 | 50% 20734-20980 (41714) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 47.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$25.43 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $362.97 | $364.97 | +$4.5 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $86.48 | $87.4 | +$0.92 | 50% 36335-35819 (72154) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.7 | $9.7 | -$0 | 74% 2421-862 (3283) |
Invested
$2,243.45
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$33.11
Record
50%
20734-20980 (41714)
Invested
$1,484.46
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$25.43
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$362.97
Value
$364.97
PnL
+$4.5
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$86.48
Value
$87.4
PnL
+$0.92
Record
50%
36335-35819 (72154)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.7
PnL
-$0
Record
74%
2421-862 (3283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.