Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$10.1K
-$0.55
93.5¢ → 96¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
150h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$51.95 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
JI jiafan | Noavg 91.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$134.18 | 59% 1460-1019 (2479) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 94.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$26 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
 alphaaliiCTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$216.68 | — 12-4 (16) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 95.2¢ | $954 | $958 | +$4 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
Invested
$2,741.54
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$51.95
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
Invested
$2,529.64
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$134.18
Record
59%
1460-1019 (2479)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,890
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$26
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
alphaaliiCTRInvested
$1,891.67
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$216.68
Record
—
12-4 (16)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$954
Value
$958
PnL
+$4
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.