Consensus PnL $193K · win rate 75% (1086–354, n=1440) · was PM monthly #572 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$193.3K
Record
1086W / 354L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 1440 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#565
Source
PM monthly #572
Trades
174
Markets
2,182
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $4.6K · now 83¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?No $2.7K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No $1.1K · now 76¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes $346 · now 98¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $300 · now 46¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?No $242 · now 21¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
Specialties
1,043 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 57¢- NBA
+42 pts
side won 100% of 70 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +37%
- Esports
+31 pts
side won 94% of 377 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +28%
- Tennis
+38 pts
side won 100% of 34 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 26% of 166)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 90% of 170)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 96% of 358)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 99% of 349)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.