Consensus PnL $87K · win rate 91% (4668–457, n=5125) · was PM monthly #959 · holds 102 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$86.7K
Record
4668W / 457L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 5125 settled
Batting Avg
45.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#216
Source
PM monthly #959
Trades
9,451
Markets
6,128
Volume
$15.6M
Top consensus positions
102 in listed consensus markets · 95 of 102 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $151K · now 84¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $36K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $32K · now 87¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $25K · now 90¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?No $14K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $12K · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes $11K · now 82¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes $7.2K · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
Specialties
5,619 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 92¢- F1
+7 pts
side won 100% of 36 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +16%
- Science
+6 pts
side won 97% of 33 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +13%
- NFL
+3 pts
side won 95% of 40 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 88% of 167 at an average 91¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 8% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 30% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 57% of 134)
- 70¢ and up: 96%(won 95% of 5403)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.