Will Puka Nacua have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$133.14

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 76.5¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL-$132.27

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.81

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.87

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

261h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 88¢	$880	$780	-$120	64% 1049-593 (1642)
extractive-manatee	Noavg 77.4¢	$398.53	$287.11	-$5.42	34% 653-1260 (1913)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 89¢	$48.95	$41.8	-$7.15	55% 5184-4271 (9455)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 73¢	$10	$7.6	+$0.3	39% 306-488 (794)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$3.45	$0.81	-$0.87	58% 21129-15368 (36497)

ndb1

Invested

$880

Value

$780

PnL

-$120

Record

64%

1049-593 (1642)

extractive-manatee

Invested

$398.53

Value

$287.11

PnL

-$5.42

Record

34%

653-1260 (1913)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$48.95

Value

$41.8

PnL

-$7.15

Record

55%

5184-4271 (9455)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

306-488 (794)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.87

Record

58%

21129-15368 (36497)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

261h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.