Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Falkirk FC 2 - 0 Celtic FC?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$244.88
80.1¢ → 38.5¢
-52% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 88.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$30.73 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $550.41 | $636.93 | +$86.52 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.5¢ | $158.77 | $321.3 | +$162.53 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $391.64 | $315.63 | -$76.01 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Noavg 45.4¢ | $167.73 | $332.75 | +$165.02 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 77.9¢ | $255.29 | $301.08 | +$45.8 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $2.32 | $5.65 | +$3.33 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
Invested
$1,464.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$30.73
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$550.41
Value
$636.93
PnL
+$86.52
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.73
Value
$332.75
PnL
+$165.02
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
RN1CTRInvested
$255.29
Value
$301.08
PnL
+$45.8
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$3.33
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.