Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-11-08?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 46¢ · $341 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$341.26
$6.33
44¢ → 45.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 44.1¢ | $145.77 | $150.41 | +$4.64 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $100.02 | $109.69 | +$9.67 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $26.38 | $22.18 | -$4.19 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $17.9 | $19.57 | +$1.67 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.4¢ | $20.18 | $16.12 | -$4.06 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $12.9 | +$1.5 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.4¢ | $13.28 | $10.38 | -$2.91 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
Invested
$145.77
Value
$150.41
PnL
+$4.64
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$100.02
Value
$109.69
PnL
+$9.67
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$26.38
Value
$22.18
PnL
-$4.19
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$17.9
Value
$19.57
PnL
+$1.67
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$16.12
PnL
-$4.06
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$1.5
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$10.38
PnL
-$2.91
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.