Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.4¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$4.9K
-$200.48
51.8¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$81.4 | 50% 2544-2531 (5075) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR | Underavg 53.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$127.57 | 51% 145-137 (282) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Overavg 44¢ | $806.47 | $953.11 | +$146.64 | 50% 1234-1233 (2467) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $63.81 | $62.53 | +$1.28 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 50.2¢ | $746.84 | $1.67 | -$139.43 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$2,034.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$81.4
Record
50%
2544-2531 (5075)
Invested
$1,999.89
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$127.57
Record
51%
145-137 (282)
Invested
$806.47
Value
$953.11
PnL
+$146.64
Record
50%
1234-1233 (2467)
Invested
$63.81
Value
$62.53
PnL
+$1.28
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$746.84
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$139.43
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.