Exact Score: Juventus FC 1 - 2 SSC Napoli?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$11.1K
-$478.43
95.9¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.8¢ | $9.4K | $9.4K | +$17.37 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
 RN1 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $1.4K | $946.26 | -$494.16 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96¢ | $672.82 | $674.1 | +$1.28 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $65.26 | $65.97 | +$0.71 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.5 | $7.88 | -$3.63 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
Invested
$9,362.06
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$17.37
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
RN1Invested
$1,440.42
Value
$946.26
PnL
-$494.16
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$672.82
Value
$674.1
PnL
+$1.28
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$65.26
Value
$65.97
PnL
+$0.71
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.5
Value
$7.88
PnL
-$3.63
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.