Exact Score: Juventus FC 2 - 2 SSC Napoli?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.3K
-$15.51
93.4¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$34.26 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $466.47 | $456.61 | -$9.86 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $95.24 | $122.66 | +$27.42 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $14.02 | $14.73 | +$0.71 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $0.2 | $0.68 | +$0.48 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
Invested
$1,718.28
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$34.26
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888Invested
$466.47
Value
$456.61
PnL
-$9.86
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
RN1CTRInvested
$95.24
Value
$122.66
PnL
+$27.42
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$14.73
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.48
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.