Exact Score: Juventus FC 3 - 2 SSC Napoli?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.1K
$36.44
98.2¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$45.53 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$41.44 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.2¢ | $766.63 | $776.79 | +$10.16 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.77 | $46.5 | +$42.73 | 53% 743-648 (1391) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $35.44 | $23.09 | -$12.35 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1Invested
$1,798.32
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$45.53
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$1,469.68
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$41.44
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$766.63
Value
$776.79
PnL
+$10.16
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$42.73
Record
53%
743-648 (1391)
Invested
$35.44
Value
$23.09
PnL
-$12.35
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.