Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 68¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$15.0K
-$3.91
68¢ → 67.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | Noavg 68¢ | $11.8K | $11.8K | -$0 | 43% 471-634 (1105) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$25.61 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$21.87 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $71.08 | $71.61 | +$0.53 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $44.48 | $44.48 | -$0.7 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$11,810.21
Value
$11.8K
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
471-634 (1105)
Invested
$1,639.58
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$25.61
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$1,451.39
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.87
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$71.08
Value
$71.61
PnL
+$0.53
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$44.48
Value
$44.48
PnL
-$0.7
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.