Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-08?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $865 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$864.74
$17.05
52.4¢ → 51.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.9¢ | $430.38 | $443 | +$12.62 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 51¢ | $136.55 | $137.77 | +$1.22 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $166.02 | $126.48 | +$3.33 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $72.71 | +$0.67 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $58.94 | $59.51 | +$0.58 | 56% 8260-6557 (14817) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.04 | $9.94 | -$0.1 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $7.95 | $8.04 | +$0.08 | 48% 44-48 (92) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $9 | $7.28 | -$1.36 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
Invested
$430.38
Value
$443
PnL
+$12.62
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$136.55
Value
$137.77
PnL
+$1.22
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888Invested
$166.02
Value
$126.48
PnL
+$3.33
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$72.71
PnL
+$0.67
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$58.94
Value
$59.51
PnL
+$0.58
Record
56%
8260-6557 (14817)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$9.94
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$8.04
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
44-48 (92)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$7.28
PnL
-$1.36
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.