Will Venezia FC win on 2026-11-06?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$3.56

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,465

Combined PnL-$21.71

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,053

Combined PnL+$25.27

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$4.4K	$1.9K	-$21.85	64% 1955-1087 (3042)
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 56¢	$980.7	$989.46	+$8.76	54% 2564-2224 (4788)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 56¢	$974.68	$983.39	+$8.71	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
nigiri99	Noavg 56¢	$840	$840	+$7.5	46% 8572-10207 (18779)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 56¢	$34.2	$34.5	+$0.31	64% 9844-5498 (15342)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$61.4	$26.71	+$0.31	69% 7197-3179 (10376)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$36.94	$15.1	-$0.17	58% 20305-14907 (35212)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,369.19

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$21.85

Record

64%

1955-1087 (3042)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$980.7

Value

$989.46

PnL

+$8.76

Record

54%

2564-2224 (4788)

Flaznorp

Invested

$974.68

Value

$983.39

PnL

+$8.71

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

nigiri99

Invested

$840

Value

$840

PnL

+$7.5

Record

46%

8572-10207 (18779)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$0.31

Record

64%

9844-5498 (15342)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.4

Value

$26.71

PnL

+$0.31

Record

69%

7197-3179 (10376)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.94

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.