Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $19 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$18.71

Combined PnL

-$225.23

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$18.71

Total Shares3,402

Combined PnL-$225.23

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$54.84	$8.07	-$46.35	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$7.6	+$2.53	49% 103-107 (210)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yes	$2.04	$2.04	-$121.82	39% 1294-2033 (3327)
ME merodCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$495.3	$0.56	-$33.54	34% 3358-6392 (9750)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$0.44	$0.44	-$26.05	38% 7205-11844 (19049)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.84

Value

$8.07

PnL

-$46.35

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$2.53

Record

49%

103-107 (210)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$121.82

Record

39%

1294-2033 (3327)

merodCTR

Yes

Invested

$495.3

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$33.54

Record

34%

3358-6392 (9750)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$26.05

Record

38%

7205-11844 (19049)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6048.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

6148.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.