Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 41% (245–357, n=602) · PM monthly #288 · holds 61 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$85.2K
Record
245W / 357L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 602 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2347
Source
PM monthly #288
Record (90 d)
1863/4160 · 45%
Trades
751
Markets
13,506
Volume
$955.8K
Top consensus positions
61 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 61 on the consensus side (61%)- Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?Yes $824 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?No $203 · now 53¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $152 · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (58% of 43)
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 2?No $132 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $95 · now 22¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $56 · now 26¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on November 3?No $47 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on November 2?Yes $43 · now 98¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
Specialties
1,348 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 63¢- MLB
+9 pts
side won 64% of 25 · avg entry 55¢
ROI 0%
- Esports
+10 pts
side won 59% of 17 · avg entry 49¢
ROI −3%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 84% of 25 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 59% of 772 at an average 59¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 1% of 475)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 45% of 29)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 79% of 42)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 100% of 802)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.