Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 5.0¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
$3.4K
$225.24
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
96h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roscoff | Yesavg 30¢ | $900 | $2.9K | +$1.9K | 52% 203-190 (393) |
 dips. | Yesavg 98¢ | $256 | $243.2 | -$7.68 | 46% 12136-14078 (26214) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $1.9K | $138.25 | $-1.8K | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
WH whosay | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $75.8 | $137.75 | +$61.95 | 57% 1299-970 (2269) |
 bot-rapin<$100 | Yesavg 92.2¢ | $17.23 | $16.37 | +$0.48 | 100% 20-0 (20) |
Invested
$900
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
52%
203-190 (393)
dips.Invested
$256
Value
$243.2
PnL
-$7.68
Record
46%
12136-14078 (26214)
Invested
$1,916.39
Value
$138.25
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$75.8
Value
$137.75
PnL
+$61.95
Record
57%
1299-970 (2269)
bot-rapin<$100Invested
$17.23
Value
$16.37
PnL
+$0.48
Record
100%
20-0 (20)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.