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03
Consensus PnL -$16K · win rate 57% (145–110, n=255) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 4 consensus positions
0x03dc4df0...09ee99e1Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-15.9K
Record
145W / 110L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 255 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1345
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
10
Markets
309
Volume
$154.2K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $1.3K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $925 · now 37¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (65% of 54)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $216 · now 5¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $39 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
116 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 78¢- MMA
+17 pts
side won 100% of 102 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 100% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 100% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 100% of 78)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.