Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Al Fateh Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Riyadh Saudi Club?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 3.1¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 17%
$22.5K
$-2.5K
Research grade
AvoidNo at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
59h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HR HRAImail-.- | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $2.5K | $10.1K | +$7.6K | 85% 17-3 (20) |
RO roscoff | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $2.2K | $6.1K | +$3.9K | 50% 174-171 (345) |
DI dips. | Yesavg 94.7¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$72.68 | 47% 10633-12155 (22788) |
 donube | Yesavg 93.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | +$65.03 | 61% 875-556 (1431) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 74.2¢ | $14.9K | $623.6 | $-14.2K | 51% 25773-24474 (50247) |
 bot-rapin | Yesavg 94¢ | $108.07 | $104.72 | +$3.13 | — 6-0 (6) |
Invested
$2,516.6
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$7.6K
Record
85%
17-3 (20)
Invested
$2,182.99
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
50%
174-171 (345)
Invested
$3,688.25
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$72.68
Record
47%
10633-12155 (22788)
donubeInvested
$1,790.05
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$65.03
Record
61%
875-556 (1431)
Invested
$14,924.21
Value
$623.6
PnL
$-14.2K
Record
51%
25773-24474 (50247)
bot-rapinInvested
$108.07
Value
$104.72
PnL
+$3.13
Record
—
6-0 (6)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.