Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 19¢ · $474 held · ended Sep 8
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$473.83
-$596.92
17.9¢ → 18.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 17.2¢ | $208.3 | $223.9 | -$208.3 | 50% 36335-35819 (72154) |
 RN1 | Overavg 77¢ | $128.04 | $148.45 | +$20.41 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 19.4¢ | $103.55 | $98.43 | -$5.12 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $0.99 | $3.05 | +$2.06 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 18¢ | $185.99 | — | -$185.99 | 40% 1343-2035 (3378) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 18¢ | $219.99 | — | -$219.99 | 39% 1338-2112 (3450) |
Invested
$208.3
Value
$223.9
PnL
-$208.3
Record
50%
36335-35819 (72154)
RN1Invested
$128.04
Value
$148.45
PnL
+$20.41
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$103.55
Value
$98.43
PnL
-$5.12
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$2.06
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Invested
$185.99
Value
—
PnL
-$185.99
Record
40%
1343-2035 (3378)
Invested
$219.99
Value
—
PnL
-$219.99
Record
39%
1338-2112 (3450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.