StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$11.4K
$889.2
83.2¢ → 96.9¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR tradexplorer | Noavg 78.6¢ | $7.0K | $7.7K | +$767.33 | 60% 291-194 (485) |
 vinii | Noavg 90.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$115.83 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$9.8 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
HI hithitfar | Noavg 92.7¢ | $429.58 | $677.2 | +$2.25 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $179.6 | $193.2 | +$13.6 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
Invested
$6,960.29
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$767.33
Record
60%
291-194 (485)
viniiInvested
$1,715.53
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$115.83
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$1,015.56
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$9.8
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$429.58
Value
$677.2
PnL
+$2.25
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
Invested
$179.6
Value
$193.2
PnL
+$13.6
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.