Consensus PnL $68K · win rate 56% (142–113, n=255) · hand-picked wallet · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$68.0K
Record
142W / 113L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 255 settled
Batting Avg
64.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1401
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
25,569
Markets
558
Volume
$4.1M
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 21 on the consensus side (86%)- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $11K · now 72¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $8.9K · now 45¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $7.7K · now 97¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?No $7.0K · now 28¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $4.8K · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $4.8K · now 96¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No $4.5K · now 91¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $2.8K · now 94¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
462 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 51¢- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 63% of 242 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 47% of 55 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 9% of 11 at an average 35¢ entry (−26 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 12% of 161)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 41% of 61)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 76% of 82)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 91% of 158)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.