Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 64¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.3K
$18.67
63.1¢ → 63.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 63.1¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$14.99 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 63.1¢ | $363.39 | $365.84 | +$2.46 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $368 | $168 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $18.9 | $19.65 | +$0.75 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $10 | $10.23 | +$0.23 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $1.46 | +$0.23 | 32% 7674-16005 (23679) |
Invested
$2,703.4
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$14.99
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$363.39
Value
$365.84
PnL
+$2.46
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$368
Value
$168
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.9
Value
$19.65
PnL
+$0.75
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.46
PnL
+$0.23
Record
32%
7674-16005 (23679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.