Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.0K
$348.14
61.5¢ → 80.5¢
+31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
536h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 76.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$106.96 | 68% 340-161 (501) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 13.1¢ | $93.01 | $573.24 | +$480.23 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $75.25 | $311.6 | +$236.35 | 57% 16832-12621 (29453) |
TR tradexplorerCTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $765 | $285 | -$472.5 | 60% 291-195 (486) |
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100 | Yesavg 76.3¢ | $85.49 | $7.8 | -$2.9 | 50% 1107-1125 (2232) |
alanhuttonInvested
$1,764.14
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$106.96
Record
68%
340-161 (501)
LornaPredictsInvested
$93.01
Value
$573.24
PnL
+$480.23
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$75.25
Value
$311.6
PnL
+$236.35
Record
57%
16832-12621 (29453)
Invested
$765
Value
$285
PnL
-$472.5
Record
60%
291-195 (486)
Invested
$85.49
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$2.9
Record
50%
1107-1125 (2232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.