Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 71% (322–134, n=456) · was PM monthly #964 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$48.6K
Record
322W / 134L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 456 settled
Batting Avg
57.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#697
Source
PM monthly #964
Trades
808
Markets
685
Volume
$799.5K
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 19 on the consensus side (79%)- Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?No $5.9K · now 63¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $5.6K · now 94¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $5.3K · now 72¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No $4.5K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?No $2.6K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?No $1.3K · now 60¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $1.2K · now 46¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?No $903 · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
571 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 71¢- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 73% of 358 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +3%
- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 96% of 24 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 41% of 32 at an average 54¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 16% of 58)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 39% of 70)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 65% of 89)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 91% of 354)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.