Consensus PnL $353K · win rate 55% (13964–11235, n=25199) · PM monthly #79 · holds 242 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$352.8K
Record
13964W / 11235L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 25199 settled
Batting Avg
68.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1486
Source
PM monthly #79
Record (90 d)
1572/4325 · 36%
Trades
10,042
Markets
30,961
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
242 in listed consensus markets · 152 of 242 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $7.5K · now 96¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (85% of 34)
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?Yes $3.7K · now 99¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $3.2K · now 100¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $2.9K · now 92¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $2.5K · now 95¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $2.3K · now 73¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $2.3K · now 86¢ · in at 83¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $2.3K · now 72¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (81% of 39)
Specialties
13,426 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 38¢- Esports
+18 pts
side won 66% of 2691 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +13%
- Tennis
+18 pts
side won 67% of 671 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +15%
- NBA
+19 pts
side won 57% of 101 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 30% of 114 at an average 34¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 11% of 6957)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 59% of 1759)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 89% of 1665)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 98% of 3045)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.