Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 38¢ · $239 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$239.15
$40.28
78¢ → 38¢
-51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 23¢ | $66.74 | $110.66 | +$43.93 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 23.9¢ | $30.26 | $67.78 | +$37.53 | 49% 14323-15001 (29324) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $86.92 | $49.29 | -$37.63 | 47% 10355-11792 (22147) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $10.94 | $8.62 | -$2.32 | 57% 12266-9326 (21592) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $2.79 | -$1.23 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
Invested
$66.74
Value
$110.66
PnL
+$43.93
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$30.26
Value
$67.78
PnL
+$37.53
Record
49%
14323-15001 (29324)
Invested
$86.92
Value
$49.29
PnL
-$37.63
Record
47%
10355-11792 (22147)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$10.94
Value
$8.62
PnL
-$2.32
Record
57%
12266-9326 (21592)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$1.23
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.