Exact Score: Umraniyespor 2 - 1 Boluspor?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$409.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 89¢ | $1.3K | $753.96 | -$574.8 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $83.38 | $375.21 | +$291.83 | 53% 60903-53272 (114175) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $77.17 | $363.82 | +$286.65 | 49% 14598-15343 (29941) |
AH aHjCzCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $488.63 | $237.41 | +$224.45 | 39% 5762-9001 (14763) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $386.83 | $191.48 | +$181.03 | 28% 362-938 (1300) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $157.19 | $112.36 | -$44.83 | 51% 37347-36602 (73949) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88¢ | $148.43 | $85.18 | -$63.25 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $8.76 | $27.18 | +$18.42 |
Invested
$1,328.76
Value
$753.96
PnL
-$574.8
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
RN1CTRInvested
$83.38
Value
$375.21
PnL
+$291.83
Record
53%
60903-53272 (114175)
Invested
$77.17
Value
$363.82
PnL
+$286.65
Record
49%
14598-15343 (29941)
Invested
$488.63
Value
$237.41
PnL
+$224.45
Record
39%
5762-9001 (14763)
Invested
$386.83
Value
$191.48
PnL
+$181.03
Record
28%
362-938 (1300)
Invested
$157.19
Value
$112.36
PnL
-$44.83
Record
51%
37347-36602 (73949)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.