Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 90¢ · $909 held · ended Oct 14

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$909.18

Combined PnL

-$5.13

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 90¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$839.33

Total Shares933

Combined PnL+$129.38

Over3 traders

Total Value$69.85

Total Shares695

Combined PnL-$134.5

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 72.4¢	$565.38	$702.02	+$136.64	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Underavg 98.6¢	$128.2	$116.94	-$11.26	82% 2558-570 (3128)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 31.8¢	$203.2	$64.32	-$138.88	50% 35605-35075 (70680)
RN1<$100	Underavg 72.3¢	$16.38	$20.38	+$4	53% 59009-51318 (110327)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$1	$5.03	+$4.03	58% 49549-35643 (85192)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.5	+$0.35	51% 11626-11045 (22671)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$565.38

Value

$702.02

PnL

+$136.64

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Under

Invested

$128.2

Value

$116.94

PnL

-$11.26

Record

82%

2558-570 (3128)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$203.2

Value

$64.32

PnL

-$138.88

Record

50%

35605-35075 (70680)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$16.38

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

59009-51318 (110327)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$4.03

Record

58%

49549-35643 (85192)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

11626-11045 (22671)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.