Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 97¢ · $423 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$423.13
$14.97
92.6¢ → 97¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 95.1¢ | $187.12 | $181.43 | +$3.47 | 53% 60903-53272 (114175) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 86¢ | $117.33 | $130.65 | +$13.33 | 50% 28246-28129 (56375) |
CI cigarettes | Underavg 96.6¢ | $100 | $97 | +$0.4 | 53% 23051-20286 (43337) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $16.14 | $14.01 | -$2.13 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $0.13 | $0.03 | -$0.09 | 47% 11568-12989 (24557) |
RN1Invested
$187.12
Value
$181.43
PnL
+$3.47
Record
53%
60903-53272 (114175)
Invested
$117.33
Value
$130.65
PnL
+$13.33
Record
50%
28246-28129 (56375)
Invested
$100
Value
$97
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
23051-20286 (43337)
Invested
$16.14
Value
$14.01
PnL
-$2.13
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.09
Record
47%
11568-12989 (24557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.