Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-11-03?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$17.71

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 64.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,815

Combined PnL-$64.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$730.15

Total Shares2,116

Combined PnL+$46.93

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 69.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$72.85	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
MA Marios15tCTR	Yesavg 32.4¢	$650	$692.44	+$42.44	49% 95-100 (195)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$19.89	$22.87	+$2.98	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$13.33	$14.83	+$1.51	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69.9¢	$725.37	$3.5	+$8.21	58% 42718-31089 (73807)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,258.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$72.85

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Marios15tCTR

Yes

Invested

$650

Value

$692.44

PnL

+$42.44

Record

49%

95-100 (195)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.89

Value

$22.87

PnL

+$2.98

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$725.37

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$8.21

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.