Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$4.89

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,336

Combined PnL-$12.62

No2 traders

Total Value$172.03

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$17.51

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

143h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 60¢	$686.04	$686.04	-$5.72	65% 1758-962 (2720)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 60.2¢	$497.45	$495.6	-$5.98	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HRTrading	Yesavg 60¢	$237.67	$250.07	-$0.92	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Noavg 36.3¢	$149.61	$164.96	+$17.42	63% 754-450 (1204)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$7.07	$7.07	+$0.09	53% 16119-14285 (30404)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$686.04

Value

$686.04

PnL

-$5.72

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$497.45

Value

$495.6

PnL

-$5.98

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$237.67

Value

$250.07

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

P1kasoCTR

Invested

$149.61

Value

$164.96

PnL

+$17.42

Record

63%

754-450 (1204)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.07

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

143h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.