Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-05?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$2.4K
$20
52.1¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$2.36 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 52¢ | $578.61 | $584.17 | +$5.56 | 53% 16517-14663 (31180) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 52¢ | $290.46 | $293.25 | +$2.79 | 39% 1338-2112 (3450) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 52¢ | $276.09 | $278.74 | +$2.65 | 40% 1343-2035 (3378) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52¢ | $396.12 | $114.09 | +$3.99 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $71.91 | $74.03 | +$2.12 | 49% 3293-3423 (6716) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $41.99 | $42.26 | +$0.28 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $26 | $26.25 | +$0.25 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
Invested
$1,022.7
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$2.36
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$578.61
Value
$584.17
PnL
+$5.56
Record
53%
16517-14663 (31180)
Invested
$290.46
Value
$293.25
PnL
+$2.79
Record
39%
1338-2112 (3450)
Invested
$276.09
Value
$278.74
PnL
+$2.65
Record
40%
1343-2035 (3378)
VeryLucky888Invested
$396.12
Value
$114.09
PnL
+$3.99
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$71.91
Value
$74.03
PnL
+$2.12
Record
49%
3293-3423 (6716)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$41.99
Value
$42.26
PnL
+$0.28
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
Invested
$26
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.