Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 85¢ · $503 held · ends Nov 5

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$502.9

Combined PnL

-$23.43

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$413.38

Total Shares460

Combined PnL+$7.69

No4 traders

Total Value$89.51

Total Shares639

Combined PnL-$31.12

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Yesavg 84¢	$195.36	$198.85	+$3.49	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 84¢	$189.2	$192.93	+$3.73	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$69.3	$46.32	-$21.32	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 17.4¢	$50.51	$39.91	-$9.59	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$19.97	$20.32	+$0.36	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$2.76	$2.58	-$0.18	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$1.17	$1.28	+$0.11	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.75	$0.7	-$0.03	52% 8574-7820 (16394)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$195.36

Value

$198.85

PnL

+$3.49

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$189.2

Value

$192.93

PnL

+$3.73

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$69.3

Value

$46.32

PnL

-$21.32

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$50.51

Value

$39.91

PnL

-$9.59

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.97

Value

$20.32

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.