Will FK LNZ Cherkasy win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 71¢ · $158 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$157.92
$16.64
73.7¢ → 71¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $90.8 | $87.83 | -$2.97 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $15.56 | $35.66 | +$20.1 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $23.82 | $23.24 | -$0.58 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $6.94 | $6.94 | +$0 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $4.17 | $4.25 | +$0.09 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$90.8
Value
$87.83
PnL
-$2.97
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
Invested
$15.56
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$20.1
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
Invested
$23.82
Value
$23.24
PnL
-$0.58
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.17
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.