Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 0 FK Polissia?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 38¢ · $603 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$602.79
$507.68
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
155h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.88 | $273.46 | +$253.75 | 22% 657-2369 (3026) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $14.06 | $112.2 | +$98.25 | 52% 49624-46573 (96197) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.28 | $103.83 | +$103.56 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $11.58 | $79.04 | +$67.98 | 57% 60850-45925 (106775) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $50 | $33.24 | -$16.75 | 46% 31006-36459 (67465) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $0.12 | $1.02 | +$0.9 | 58% 53839-38316 (92155) |
Invested
$0.88
Value
$273.46
PnL
+$253.75
Record
22%
657-2369 (3026)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$112.2
PnL
+$98.25
Record
52%
49624-46573 (96197)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$0.28
Value
$103.83
PnL
+$103.56
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$79.04
PnL
+$67.98
Record
57%
60850-45925 (106775)
Invested
$50
Value
$33.24
PnL
-$16.75
Record
46%
31006-36459 (67465)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$1.02
PnL
+$0.9
Record
58%
53839-38316 (92155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.