Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
FK Livyi Bereh vs. FSK Bukovyna Chernivtsi: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 44¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.7K
$8.42
60.7¢ → 44¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 39.2¢ | $650.73 | $928.56 | +$277.82 | 57% 60850-45924 (106774) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 60.8¢ | $946.92 | $685.66 | -$261.26 | 52% 49502-46467 (95969) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $59 | $44 | -$15 | 58% 53792-38296 (92088) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $16.7 | $21.26 | +$4.56 | 53% 3142-2756 (5898) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $3.3 | $5.6 | +$2.3 | 47% 123-136 (259) |
Invested
$650.73
Value
$928.56
PnL
+$277.82
Record
57%
60850-45924 (106774)
Invested
$946.92
Value
$685.66
PnL
-$261.26
Record
52%
49502-46467 (95969)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$59
Value
$44
PnL
-$15
Record
58%
53792-38296 (92088)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$16.7
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$4.56
Record
53%
3142-2756 (5898)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$2.3
Record
47%
123-136 (259)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.