Will FK Karpaty Lviv win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 62¢ · $35 held · ended Nov 7

Yes62¢No38¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$34.5

Combined PnL

$2.77

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$21.88

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$6.46

No3 traders

Total Value$12.63

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$3.69

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 23.2¢	$4.51	$11.06	+$6.55	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$6.72	$6.58	-$0.14	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$6.02	$5.51	-$0.51	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$4.18	$4.24	+$0.06	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$8.05	$3.95	-$0.97	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$5.38	$3.17	-$2.21	51% 38228-37447 (75675)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.51

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$6.55

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.97

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$3.17

PnL

-$2.21

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.