FK Polissia vs. RNK Veres Rivne: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 50¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$716.89
$22.1
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $598.98 | $546.9 | -$52.07 | 51% 26313-24941 (51254) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $504.57 | $388 | -$116.57 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $94.4 | $158.9 | +$64.5 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 38¢ | $176 | $75.01 | +$22 | 58% 47031-33914 (80945) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 62.6¢ | $57.16 | $56.67 | -$0.5 | 50% 26083-25738 (51821) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.6¢ | $32.76 | $33.48 | +$0.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $24.4 | $23.18 | -$1.22 | |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 38.1¢ | $35.13 | $35.03 | -$0.1 | 50% 1580-1596 (3176) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3.08 | $3.28 | +$0.21 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
Invested
$598.98
Value
$546.9
PnL
-$52.07
Record
51%
26313-24941 (51254)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$176
Value
$75.01
PnL
+$22
Record
58%
47031-33914 (80945)
Invested
$57.16
Value
$56.67
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
26083-25738 (51821)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.13
Value
$35.03
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
1580-1596 (3176)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$0.21
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.