Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-11-02?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 48¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Yes48¢No52¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$35.18

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 48¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,664

Combined PnL-$45.04

No4 traders

Total Value$622.47

Total Shares1,245

Combined PnL+$9.86

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$43.4	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 48.1¢	$207.87	$216	+$8.13	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 49¢	$252.5	$207.62	+$3.52	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51¢	$198.39	$196.47	-$1.92	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$169.83	$168.17	-$1.67	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.38	+$0.13	59% 30973-21692 (52665)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$1.08	$1.13	+$0.03	53% 6370-5754 (12124)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,207.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$43.4

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$207.87

Value

$216

PnL

+$8.13

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$252.5

Value

$207.62

PnL

+$3.52

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

Flaznorp

Invested

$198.39

Value

$196.47

PnL

-$1.92

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.83

Value

$168.17

PnL

-$1.67

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

30973-21692 (52665)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.