Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$11.3K
$2.3K
60.1¢ → 96.7¢
+61% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4877h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
124 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 60.4¢ | $7.1K | $10.5K | +$4.0K | 66% 487-255 (742) |
FO Folletin | Noavg 53¢ | $197.4 | $359.98 | +$162.58 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $2.1K | $225.07 | $-1.9K | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
KR Krass | Noavg 59¢ | $118 | $193.3 | +$75.3 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.82 | $3.91 | +$1.23 | 47% 2036-2280 (4316) |
Invested
$7,066.88
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$4.0K
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
Invested
$197.4
Value
$359.98
PnL
+$162.58
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$2,091.53
Value
$225.07
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$118
Value
$193.3
PnL
+$75.3
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$1.23
Record
47%
2036-2280 (4316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.