Consensus PnL $77K · win rate 71% (367–150, n=517) · hand-picked wallet · holds 38 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.3K
Record
367W / 150L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 517 settled
Batting Avg
58.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#696
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
8,237
Markets
689
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
38 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 38 on the consensus side (68%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $26K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $15K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $12K · now 96¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (78% of 18)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $10K · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No $10K · now 96¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $4.9K · now 99¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No $3.7K · now 83¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.7K · now 82¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
Specialties
572 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 69¢- Soccer
+26 pts
side won 81% of 16 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 80% of 122 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +9%
- Tech
+25 pts
side won 81% of 16 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 61% of 69 at an average 71¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 22% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 39% of 49)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 70% of 100)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 90% of 354)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.