Consensus PnL $910K · win rate 37% (315–542, n=857) · hand-picked wallet · holds 143 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$909.6K
Record
315W / 542L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 857 settled
Batting Avg
54.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2135
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
350,166
Markets
3,553
Volume
$85.9M
Top consensus positions
143 in listed consensus markets · 79 of 143 on the consensus side (55%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $54K · now 44¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $41K · now 72¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $33K · now 74¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (69% of 45)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $20K · now 19¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $19K · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $18K · now 6¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No $16K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $15K · now 73¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
Specialties
1,112 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 45¢- Entertainment
+2 pts
side won 49% of 80 · avg entry 46¢
ROI −1%
- Finance
+7 pts
side won 39% of 28 · avg entry 33¢
ROI −1%
- NBA
+6 pts
side won 38% of 13 · avg entry 33¢
ROI −7%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 40% of 308 at an average 42¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 4% of 557)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 32% of 77)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 55% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 96% of 434)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.